The similarities between these teams are endless.
The Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals are without their starting quarterbacks. The teams’ superstar receivers, Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, are overcoming injuries. Both head coaches, Kevin O’Connell and Zac Taylor, worked for the Los Angeles Rams and head coach Sean McVay. Both defensive coordinators, Brian Flores and Lou Anarumo, thrive off multiple looks and deception.
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The matchup of the two 7-6 teams, flexed to Saturday afternoon, figures to be fascinating. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.
What I’m watching
Lewis: The Vikings offense. Can this unit get right with Nick Mullens at the helm? Coach Kevin O’Connell has described the offense as “week to week.” Injuries are partly to blame. Fortunately, the Bengals defense this season has not performed the way it has in past years. They do not have safeties Jessie Bates or Vonn Bell. They rank in the bottom third of the NFL in most advanced metrics in their previous four games. Still, Anarumo is no slouch. To get right, Minnesota must be able to adapt to Anarumo’s creativity in game without right tackle Brian O’Neill and running back Alexander Mattison, who will both miss the game due to ankle injuries.
Krawczynski: Justin Jefferson. He says he’s good to go, but it’s hard not to wonder after he was taken to the hospital in Las Vegas. If the Vikings are going to pull this one out, they need Jefferson at his best, matching his former LSU teammate (Chase) with plays down the field for a Minnesota offense that has lacked any element of explosion over the last few weeks. Another early exit would make life so much harder for Mullens and the rest of the crew. If he can resume his playmaking, that will breathe new life into a moribund offense.
Biggest concerns
Lewis: The Vikings offensive line. I worry about Mullens’ health, considering he recently returned from injured reserve after overcoming a lower-back injury. I also question Minnesota’s ability to block D.J. Reader, Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, especially without O’Neill on the edge and Mattison in pass protection. The onus will likely fall on the Vikings’ staff to creatively plan their pass-protection scheme. Fullback C.J. Ham also could have a major role as a pass blocker in dropback situations. The Bengals’ pass-rush metrics are not overwhelming, but the individual talent might have the ability to control the game.
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Krawczynski: That Mullens isn’t the answer. If this change doesn’t work, it’s hard to imagine the Vikings mounting any kind of serious push toward the playoffs. His style seems to better fit what O’Connell wants out of his quarterback than Josh Dobbs did. But he has also been a career backup. Does he have what it takes to galvanize the offense? Should he falter, the only option left is rookie Jaren Hall. He looked decent in the early going against Atlanta before getting knocked out, but playing quarterback roulette does not seem like a path to postseason success. They need Mullens to pull a Case Keenum and come out of nowhere to do the unexpected. Clear eyes, full hearts.
Most interesting matchup
Lewis: Brian Flores’ defense versus the Bengals’ skill players. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins have more yards after the catch this season than the Bengals. The reason? Wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are difficult to tackle. So is running back Joe Mixon. Teams tend to run screens against Flores’ defense as they allow quarterbacks to get rid of the ball quickly. Halfback screens take advantage of Flores’ exotic blitzes. The Bengals, meanwhile, are one of the most effective screen teams in the league. They average 12.4 yards per play on screens to running backs. The Vikings defenders’ ability to tackle in space may dictate their chances of hanging in the fight.
Krawczynski: Jefferson versus Chase. No, they do not guard each other. But these are two of the most talented receivers in the game, good friends from their days together at LSU. They have starred in commercials together and won a national title together. Even Joe Burrow, the quarterback of those Tigers and these Bengals, said at one time that Jefferson may be the better receiver of the two. This is the second time the two have squared off as pros. Chase was the winner in 2021, hauling in a 50-yard touchdown to help the Bengals beat Jefferson and the Vikings. Now Jefferson gets a chance at revenge.
Receivers Justin Jefferson (2) and Ja’Marr Chase (1) were stars together at LSU, here during the 2019 Peach Bowl. (John David Mercer / USA Today)Most interesting overall storyline
Lewis: Can the Vikings solidify their playoff positioning? According to The New York Times’ model, a win this weekend would increase the Vikings’ playoff chances to 78 percent. A loss would drop the team’s chances to around 51 percent. For all that has happened — from Jefferson’s hamstring strain to Kirk Cousins’ Achilles tear to Dobbs’ takeoff and descent — the fact that the Vikings can move to 8-6 and inch close to the playoffs all of these weeks later is objectively wild.
Krawczynski: Jake Browning standing in the Vikings’ way. He was literally on the Vikings! They had him on their roster when he signed as an undrafted rookie free agent in 2019. He spent time on Minnesota’s practice squad, but with Kirk Cousins firmly entrenched as the man at quarterback, there was no room for him. It looked like Cincinnati’s season was over when Burrow was lost, but Browning has led the Bengals offense to two wins and 68 points over the last two weeks. Now he gets a chance to stick it to the team that he started with, and the quarterback-juggling Vikings are still wondering exactly who is right for the job now that Cousins is on the bench.
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Schematic matchup to keep in mind
In his two weeks as the Bengals’ starter, Browning has feasted on third-and-medium and third-and-short opportunities. He has converted 9 of 12 chances on third-and-6 or shorter. The success rate on third-and-long instances is starkly different, where he is 2-of-13. One of the Vikings’ keys to limiting the Bengals offense has to be holding up on early downs so they can confound Browning in stressful dropback circumstances.
Predictions
Lewis: Vikings 16, Bengals 13. You might be asking: How will Minnesota reach 16? The answer is No. 18. Justin Jefferson will be amped to match up against his old college teammate. The Vikings also should be able to run the ball, keeping them out of third-and-long. I’m rolling the dice on the Vikings’ road chances.
Krawczynski: Bengals 17, Vikings 14. The Vikings defense is playing lights-out football, and it has little margin for error this week. But the Bengals offense has looked capable enough to churn out just enough points to prevail in this one. It’s just hard to see how the Vikings score enough points to win this one on the road.
2023 Vikings week-by-week predictions
| Game | Week 15 at CIN | Record |
|---|---|---|
Lewis | 7-6 | |
Krawczynski | 8-5 |
(Top photo: Ian Maule / Getty Images)
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